Evaluating The Possibility of an ‘Altseason’ – ETH, SOL, AVAX, LUNA

The current crypto market bloodbath dented most leg-ups initially primed to overcome consolidations and range highs. That were the scenarios with AVAX, LUNA, and SOL. The trio recorded lucrative price performances within the previous week, and the market seemed to enjoy an altcoin season.

Is the Market Ready for Altseason?

One may need to evaluate Bitcoin’s bias to answer that. The world’s dominant crypto had its market dominance extending higher as the ratio inched beyond 41%. While publishing this blog, the metric hovered at 41.56% (TradingView data). Meanwhile, BTC’s market dominance means the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and the global cryptocurrency market capitalization. Remember, the crypto game is someone’s gains mean another losing, and that is the scenario at the moment.

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According to the tweet by Glassnode, BTC is priced for a possible 50bps surge delaying the developing alt season. It added the risk eases towards the weekend, but market players should consider the slow activity. The tweeted graph highlights this delay.

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A typical bullish cycle includes BTC and alts on upside movements. However, the actual case is that alts take backseats whenever Bitcoin kick-starts heavy uptrends and only surge when the bellwether crypto cools for the upcoming rally. BTC rests the king either way. Here is another occasion supporting the narrative.

The alt season index does not support the altcoin season thesis. An #altseason starts when 75% of the top fifty cryptos (barring stablecoins) outperform BTC over the past season, ninety days. While writing these lines, the figures stood around 41. The recent session saw some hiccups, but the macro-outlook displays lucrative motion for the king-crypto.

Though Ethereum showed potential, things dud went down for the leading alt. Enthusiasts should consider two indexes, ETH-BTC implied and ETH-BTC realized volatility spreads (on Skew analytics).

The Ethereum-Bitcoin realized volatility spread began shrinking after recording the February local high. That showed that ETH market volatility started fading gradually compared to BTC’s. Also, the former saw a similar fate. Despite hopes of Ethereum surging like Bitcoin at the moment, Ethereum-Bitcoin implied volatility stopped lower.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains a vital factor in determining the movements of the crypto market for now.

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